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BoM's updated outlook: normal rain, but warm in SE, far north
The BoM's recently introduced mid-month update to its monthly Climate Outlook is forecasting around average rainfall over much of the country from November to January, apart from somewhat wetter conditions in the far SE of the continent.
It's likely to be warmer than average, both by day and overnight, in the SE of the country and across the tropical north, and there's a very high chance that both maxima and minima will be well above average in TAS.
The full updated outlook, including a breakdown into forecasts for November, December as well as the 3-month period, is available here* (archive here).
More heavy rain in SE QLD and NE NSW
Moderate to heavy rain fell from Noosa QLD south to the NSW North Coast between 09.00 Saturday and Sunday evening with isolated very heavy falls.
A moist onshore stream was helped by a surface trough and cooler upper air to produce unsettled weather and patchy instability. In addition, the steep mountains around the Tweed Valley kicked in some additional lift that produced the heaviest fall in the 24 hours to 09.00 today, a staggering 284.0mm at Lillian Rock, 10km NW of Nimbin. This set a new October record for Lillian Rock, where rain has been measured since 1963, almost doubling its previous record of 151.4mm set in 1972. Other records are in the records section below.
Elsewhere along the coastal strip and nearby mountains, about 60% of gauges on the BoM's Hydro network recorded 50 to 100mm in the 24 hours ended 09.00, with occasional falls over 100mm. In QLD, the heaviest were around Maroochydore where 170mm at Delaney's Creek Alert, SW the city was the highest, and there were several totals to 120mm just north of the city. In NSW, in addition to the remarkable fall at Lillian Rock there were several other totals just above 100mm in the area, while farther south Rappville (Myrtle Creek), between Lismore and Grafton, recorded 175mm and Gulmarrad, near Maclean, 120mm. There was a continuation of rain reported yesterday [AWN] in the Coffs Harbour area.
Between 09.00 and midnight in QLD, rain continued in much the same pattern with 50 to 100mm recorded at about 40% of the BoM's Hydro gauges. Upper Springbrook, behind the Gold Coast, was highest with 157mm. In NSW, the heavy falls contracted to the Tweed Valley where the heaviest were predictably in the mountains north of Mount Warning; Numinbah's 86mm was the highest. Dorrigo, farther down the coast, also recorded 86mm.
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