Thursday 04 MAY 2017
 

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2017

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National Daily Weather Summary


Records set | Charts | Cities | Hottest | Coldest | Rain, sun & wind | Downpours & gales
State extremes | Noteworthy weather | Capital Cities | Regional Cities | Alpine Stations
Charts and data courtesy Bureau of Meteorology. MTSAT-1R operated by JMA
Noteworthy weather today
significant newsworthy major

The graphics and statistical information on this page fill gradually as they become available, with some not available until the next day. The page is updated every 30 minutes at about 20 and 50 minutes past the hour.

For weather news as it breaks that is tagged and organised, use the links on the Weather and Climate Media Reports page.

Thursday 4 May 2017

 What's in store for the 2017 snow season?

Forecasting what the snow season will be like over the next three or four months is like forecasting fairly precisely how much rain will fall in the NSW Snowy Mountains and VIC Alps next summer. Snow is, after all, just a frozen version of rain and behaves in exactly the same way. To get a handle on what the probabilities are, however, is something we can tackle.

Ben Domensino wrote a useful piece in Weatherzone News on Will we have a good snow season this year? He gave a good rundown on influencing drivers and statistical chances without either giving a forecast or probability expectations, but it was very good as a broad primer. 

On Tuesday, Gerg of Gerg's Net put his neck on the line, crunched the probabilities and came up with an estimated peak of 163 ± 44cm at Spencers Creek. He did this using a scientifically valid model he has been developing for over a decade. It is based on applying various weightings to forecasts of the winter means of all medium to long term climatic influences that drive the local atmosphere. These are the Antarctic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, Indian Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, sea surface temperatures and a measure of volcanic aerosols. He explains it and his rational for the 2017 forecast here, and about a week ago he did an analysis of the 2016 season and how well his forecast for that performed here. Details of his current Spencers Creek maximum snow depth prediction model are here

If you're not familiar with his site, the posts are usually accompanied by a profusion of well-explained graphs. It helps if you have some basic knowledge of statistics to fully understand these, but they are quite meaningful even if your stats is rusty or non-existent. This is, however, the most detailed information on Snowy Mountain snow depth available, with an occasional reference to the VIC Alps which, unfortunately, do not have the length of record of snow depths that the Snowies has.

Australian weather briefs

  • While April was a month of very mixed rainfall across the country, some of the record-breaking April rain fell where it was needed. Victoria in particular benefited, with farmers in the west delighted with the timing of the break [Wimmera Mail-Times]. The month was the wettest April on record around Castlemaine and Daylesford [Bendigo Advertiser] and close to the highest across much of southwestern VIC [The Standard].
  • With the Wet Season ending on 30 April, pastoralists in the Northern Territory are describing as "magnificent" the rain that produced the third-wettest "Wet" on record in the NT [ABC News]. One producer, Tom Stockwell from Sunday Creek station near Daly Waters, said "It has been a wonderful season for cattle production. It hasn't been overly wet so the cattle have kept going all wet season really, so it should be a bumper year in terms of productivity." The BoM put this handy map of NT rainfall percentage of average for the season up on Twitter.
  • A cold change on Tuesday morning that was widely tipped to bring snow to lower levels in TAS failed to deliver. Some small hail was reported on the Central Highlands, while both Kunanyi (Mount Wellington) and Cradle Mountain had a light dusting at their higher levels. Nothing remotely like snow reached the mainland Alps.

"The Arctic is unravelling" before our very eyes

The accelerating break-up of Arctic ice bodes ill for all Arctic ecosystems, including the indigenous ones there, but is also a grim portent of much more at stake.

Yet another month has passed with record low ice cover [Climate Central], April 2017 tying with April 2016 for the lowest on record by far. Temperatures in parts of the Arctic averaged 8°C above normal for the month, though had been up to 27°C above normal at times during the winter. Through April, the Arctic had just over one million square kilometres of ice less than normal.

Perhaps even more important, of the remaining ice, only 5% is now made up of thicker ice more than five years old compared to 30% in 1984. Younger ice is more susceptible to melting in warmer air or sea currents, and has more chance of being broken up by storms. The less ice there is, and the younger it is, the faster it goes.

The consequences of the warming of the Arctic more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet are detailed in a report compiled by over 90 scientists, Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost. Summary for Policy-makers, reported in Scientific American. From 2011 to 2015, the Arctic was warmer than at any time since records began around 1900. Not only is sea ice melting rapidly, but snow cover in June across Arctic land areas of North America and Eurasia is half that of observations before 2000. It is boosting sea level rise through hastening the melting of glaciers, in addition to shifting ecosystems and weather patterns. Warming of the Arctic tundras releases huge amounts of methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Feedback loops are set up accelerating, not only the loss of sea ice, but melting of tundra and glaciers.

Morten Skovgård Olsen, who coordinated the assessment and leads the Danish Ministry of Energy, Utilities and Climate’s Arctic programme, says "The Arctic that you will have by mid-century will be very different from the Arctic that we see today." Rafe Pomerance, who chairs a network of conservation groups called Arctic 21, adds "The take-home message is that the Arctic is unravelling. The fate of the Arctic has to be moved out of the world of scientific observation and into the world of government policy."

More:


Records set or equalled today

None known


The day in charts
Surface charts Satellite images Rain & temperatures
4am EST Rainfall -- 24 hours to 9am

Week to 9am | SE AUS detail
10am EST Minimum temperature anomalies

See actual temperatures
4pm EST Maximum temperature anomalies

See actual temperatures
10pm EST Solar Radiation

Summary of observations

For notes on how to interpret the data and quality control issues, see Daily Weather Summary Help.
**S** and **W** precede data flagged by the Bureau as suspicious or wrong
Data is as received at 14:02EST, 05/05/2017.

Major centres
Max
° C
+/- norm
° C
Min
° C
+/- norm
° C
Grass Min
° C
Rain to 9am mm Evaporation to 9am mm Sunshine hours Wind Run to 9am km (24-hour average km/h) Maximum Gust km/h / hour of occurrence
PERTH AIRPORT 24.6 +2.8 13.1 +2.7 10.5 0.0 3.6 5.8 338 (14.1) 34/11
BUNBURY 23.6 +2.4 13.9 +4.6 -- 0.0 -- -- 244 (10.2) 31/12
MANDURAH 22.8 +1.5 18.1 +4.5 -- 0.0 -- -- 269 (11.2) 34/20
DARWIN AIRPORT 32.7 +0.7 24.3 +2.2 23.6 0.0 5.6 11.2 240 (10.0) 43/13
ALICE SPRINGS AIRPORT 23.0 0.0 3.8 -4.4 -- 0.0 -- -- 317 (13.2) 39/14
WHYALLA AERO 17.6 -2.8 5.8 -2.9 -- 0.0 -- -- 254 (10.6) 24/10
ADELAIDE (KENT TOWN) 17.6 -1.3 5.8 -4.4 -- 0.0 -- -- 101 ( 4.2) 21/10
MOUNT GAMBIER AERO 15.5 -0.6 6.2 -1.1 -- 0.0 -- -- 168 ( 7.0) 17/06
MOUNT ISA AERO 31.5 +3.7 18.7 +4.9 -- 0.0 -- -- -- 43/00
CAIRNS AERO 29.3 +1.7 -- -- -- 0.2 -- -- -- 50/11
TOWNSVILLE AERO 29.9 +2.3 20.1 +2.5 -- 0.0 -- -- 313 (13.0) 52/14
MACKAY M.O 25.6 +1.4 20.3 +3.2 -- 24.2 -- -- 414 (17.3) 46/11
ROCKHAMPTON AERO 28.1 +2.1 20.7 +6.6 -- 0.0 -- -- 330 (13.8) 52/16
BUNDABERG AERO 26.1 +1.5 19.1 +5.0 -- 4.6 -- -- 373 (15.5) 48/13
COOLANGATTA 21.6 -1.5 17.0 +2.9 -- 4.8 -- -- 438 (18.3) 39/13
BRISBANE AERO 24.2 +0.7 16.2 +3.4 14.8 0.0 5.6 5.8 390 (16.3) 44/15
TOOWOOMBA AIRPORT 20.6 +0.8 13.7 +3.9 -- 0.0 -- -- 620 (25.8) 46/10
GUNNEDAH RESOURCE CENTRE 23.3 +3.0 13.6 +4.9 12.4 0.0 4.0 -- -- --
PORT MACQUARIE AIRPORT AWS 19.4 -2.0 14.5 +4.1 -- 10.8 -- -- 306 (12.8) 24/01
WILLIAMTOWN RAAF 20.7 +0.4 11.8 +1.8 -- 0.0 -- -- 384 (16.0) 30/09
ORANGE AGRICULTURAL INSTITUTE -- -- 4.3 -0.3 -1.4 0.0 2.2 -- -- --
DUBBO AIRPORT AWS 22.0 +2.1 11.0 +4.5 -- 0.0 -- -- 477 (19.9) 46/08
SYDNEY AIRPORT AMO 20.1 +0.1 12.0 +1.1 10.4 16.4 3.8 3.3 450 (18.8) 24/05
RICHMOND RAAF 20.9 +0.4 10.0 +2.4 -- 0.0 -- -- 202 ( 8.4) 17/11
BELLAMBI AWS 19.0 -0.6 12.0 -1.0 -- 8.0 -- -- 458 (19.1) 26/02
CANBERRA AIRPORT 17.6 -- -0.1 -- -- 0.0 -- -- 228 ( 9.5) 24/18
WAGGA WAGGA AMO 20.0 +2.7 3.8 -2.0 -- 0.0 -- -- 265 (11.0) 30/10
ALBURY AIRPORT AWS 18.8 +1.2 3.5 -1.9 -- 0.0 -- -- 97 ( 4.0) 17/10
MILDURA AIRPORT 18.1 -0.9 2.0 -5.4 -- 0.0 3.0 -- 237 ( 9.9) 22/11
TATURA INST SUSTAINABLE AG 18.5 +1.3 1.4 -4.3 -- 0.0 -- -- 219 ( 9.1) 17/11
BENDIGO AIRPORT 17.4 +0.8 3.3 -1.8 -- 0.2 -- -- 275 (11.5) 21/08
MELBOURNE AIRPORT 16.6 0.0 3.6 -4.7 1.0 0.0 1.8 9.7 301 (12.5) 24/15
BALLARAT AERODROME 15.4 +1.8 0.4 -5.3 -- 0.0 -- -- 253 (10.5) 24/09
LAUNCESTON (TI TREE BEND) 15.9 +0.1 0.7 -4.3 -- 0.0 -- -- 54 ( 2.3) 17/16
HOBART AIRPORT 17.8 +2.6 5.4 -1.2 0.2 0.0 2.0 9.4 323 (13.5) 31/10
Max
° C
+/- norm
° C
Min
° C
+/- norm
° C
Grass Min
° C
Rain to 9am mm Evaporation to 9am mm Sunshine hours Wind Run to 9am km Maximum Gust km/h / hour of occurrence
Hottest
Highest maximum temperature>Greatest variation above normal maximum Highest minimum temperatureGreatest variation above normal minimum

35.2 CENTURY MINE Gulf Country QLD
35.0 OENPELLI AIRPORT N Rivers NT
35.0 BRADSHAW N Rivers NT
34.7 MCARTHUR RIVER MINE AIRPORT N Rivers NT
34.6 JABIRU AIRPORT N Rivers NT
34.6 BORROLOOLA AIRPORT N Rivers NT
34.6 MANDORA E Pilbara WA

+9.1 : 29.6 ESPERANCE Lower West WA
+8.7 : 29.0 ESPERANCE AERO Lower West WA
+8.2 : 28.0 SALMON GUMS RES.STN. Goldfields WA
+8.0 : 31.8 MULLEWA Central West WA
+7.7 : 29.1 HOPETOUN NORTH Lower West WA

28.0 BROWSE ISLAND Islands ISL
26.8 TROUGHTON ISLAND N Kimberley WA
26.7 CAPE WESSEL Islands ISL
26.0 ROWLEY SHOALS Islands ISL
26.0 COCOS ISLAND AIRPORT Islands ISL

+10.1 : 17.1 MITCHELL POST OFFICE Maranoa QLD
+9.8 : 17.6 MILES CONSTANCE STREET Darling Downs W QLD
+8.9 : 10.8 WOOLBROOK (DANGLEMAH ROAD) NW Slopes S NSW
+8.6 : 21.0 WINTON AIRPORT Northwest QLD
+8.6 : 15.2 PINDARI DAM NW Slopes N NSW

Coldest
Lowest maximum temperatureGreatest variation below normal maximum Lowest minimum temperatureGreatest variation below normal minimum

5.5 MOUNT HOTHAM Upper NE VIC
6.3 MOUNT READ W Coast TAS
6.8 MOUNT BULLER Upper NE VIC
7.0 FALLS CREEK Upper NE VIC
7.1 THREDBO AWS Snowy Mtns NSW

-4.1 : 16.3 GLUEPOT RESERVE (GLUEPOT) Northeast SA
-3.2 : 14.8 TENTERFIELD (FEDERATION PARK) N Tablelands W NSW
-2.8 : 17.6 WHYALLA AERO W Agricultural SA
-2.6 : 19.8 ANDAMOOKA NW Pastoral SA
-2.4 : 19.2 PORT AUGUSTA AERO W Agricultural SA
-2.4 : 15.9 STANTHORPE LESLIE PARADE Darling Downs E QLD
-2.4 : 17.8 ARKAROOLA NE Pastoral SA

-7.2 PERISHER VALLEY AWS Snowy Mtns NSW
-5.9 COOMA AIRPORT AWS Goulburn/Monaro NSW
-5.5 THREDBO VILLAGE Snowy Mtns NSW
-5.0 COOMA VISITORS CENTRE Goulburn/Monaro NSW
-4.6 LIAWENEE Central Plateau TAS

-6.7 : -5.9 COOMA AIRPORT AWS Goulburn/Monaro NSW
-6.5 : -3.7 FINGAL (LEGGE STREET) E Coast TAS
-6.5 : -0.5 GLUEPOT RESERVE (GLUEPOT) Northeast SA
-6.1 : 2.1 SCORESBY RESEARCH INSTITUTE E Central VIC

Wettest
Sunniest & dullest
Windiest
Highest gusts
Todays highest rainfall totals for the 24 hours to 9am. It includes the top 5 totals nationally followed by all reported falls of 50mm or more.
Highest and lowest recordings of hours of sunshine for the 24 hours to midnight.
Highest wind run totals in kilometres for the 24 hours to 9am (average speed in brackets). All reported runs > =25km/h are shown.
Highest wind gusts in km/h for the 24 hours to midnight followed by the hour in which it occurred. All stations with gusts > 89km/h are shown.
38.0 MACKAY ALERT Central Coast E QLD
35.8 BYRON BAY (JACARANDA DRIVE) North Coast NSW
31.0 MARYBOROUGH Brisbane/SE Coast QLD
27.8 EVANS HEAD RAAF BOMBING RANGE AWS North Coast NSW
27.2 BALLINA AIRPORT AWS North Coast NSW

Reports not yet available

1115 (46.5) CAPE MORETON LIGHTHOUSE Brisbane/SE Coast QLD
968 (40.3) MAATSUYKER ISLAND LIGHTHOUSE Southeast TAS
940 (39.2) HARTZ MOUNTAIN (KEOGHS PIMPLE) Southeast TAS
917 (38.2) CAPE LEEUWIN Lower West WA
757 (31.5) RUNDLE ISLAND Wide Bay/Burnett QLD
749 (31.2) WILLIS ISLAND Islands ISL
747 (31.1) GOLD COAST SEAWAY Brisbane/SE Coast QLD
723 (30.1) BYRON BAY (CAPE BYRON AWS) North Coast NSW
696 (29.0) CAPE WESSEL Islands ISL
692 (28.8) REDCLIFFE Brisbane/SE Coast QLD
688 (28.7) CAPE FLATTERY N Coast--Barron QLD
684 (28.5) MURRURUNDI GAP AWS Hunter Valley NSW
683 (28.5) LADY ELLIOT ISLAND Wide Bay/Burnett QLD
681 (28.4) HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT Central Coast E QLD
647 (27.0) TROUGHTON ISLAND N Kimberley WA
639 (26.6) MIDDLE PERCY ISLAND Islands ISL
632 (26.3) LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE N Coast--Barron QLD
629 (26.2) ESPERANCE AERO Lower West WA
628 (26.2) MCCLUER ISLAND N Rivers NT
620 (25.8) TOOWOOMBA AIRPORT Darling Downs E QLD
616 (25.7) CAPE NATURALISTE Lower West WA
600 (25.0) BALLERA GAS FIELD Far SW QLD
72/15 CAPE MORETON LIGHTHOUSE Brisbane/SE Coast QLD
70/20 WILLIS ISLAND Islands ISL
68/01 HARTZ MOUNTAIN (KEOGHS PIMPLE) Southeast TAS
67/21 LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE N Coast--Barron QLD
65/10 HAMILTON ISLAND AIRPORT Central Coast E QLD
65/22 RUNDLE ISLAND Wide Bay/Burnett QLD

Downpours High AWS wind reports
High rainfall for periods of 6 hours or less from AWS and synoptic reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Due to a programming error, downpours shown for WA, NT, SA, QLD and ISLANDS between 9 and 10am local times are wrong and should be ignored. The error will be corrected as soon as possible.
Storm force gusts (>89km/h) and 10-minute mean gales (>62km/h) reported by AWSs. Wind direction and mean windspeed are shown in brackets.
QUEENSLAND
N Coast--Barron
CAIRNS AERO
6.6mm in 12 min to 23:19 33.0mm/h
4.4mm in 11 min to 23:30 24.0mm/h
11.4mm in 1 hr to 23:30 11.4mm/h
Central Coast E
MACKAY M.O
8.4mm in 17 min to 01:24 29.6mm/h
15.0mm in 3 hr to 03:00 5.0mm/h
Brisbane/SE Coast
MARYBOROUGH
12.4mm in 24 min to 00:54 31.0mm/h
15.2mm in 1 hr to 01:00 15.2mm/h
16.0mm in 1 hr to 01:30 16.0mm/h
22.0mm in 3 hr to 03:00 7.3mm/h
Warrego
CHARLEVILLE AERO
1.6mm in 1 min to 14:08 96.0mm/h
11.4mm in 1 hr to 14:30 11.4mm/h
11.2mm in 1 hr to 15:00 11.2mm/h
NEW SOUTH WALES
North Coast
BALLINA AIRPORT AWS
11.8mm in 1 hr to 10:00 11.8mm/h
10.2mm in 1 hr to 10:30 10.2mm/h
22.0mm in 3 hr to 12:00 7.3mm/h
BYRON BAY (CAPE BYRON AWS)
11.8mm in 1 hr to 03:30 11.8mm/h
10.2mm in 1 hr to 04:00 10.2mm/h
None reported