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Exceptionally high pressure pushes large areas towards drought

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Large parts of western WA, southern NSW, northern VIC and eastern TAS had their driest June on record this year. The much larger area with the "very much below average" shading had less rain than it would expect in one in ten years. BoM |
Australia has just completed its second-driest June since reliable rainfall records began in 1900, with large parts of the country having their driest. The bad news is that it's not going to improve in a hurry.
Persistent high pressure across southern Australia and the lack of cold fronts, which normally bring cloud and rain from the Southern Ocean during winter, were responsible for the national rainfall average being 62% below average. The area-averaged rainfall for Australia as a whole was just 8.8mm, only just above the 8.0mm in 1940 which was the driest June on record. VIC recorded an average of 13.7mm statewide, 77% below average and the lowest on record for the state. In its Australian Monthly Summary for June*, the Bureau of Meteorology says "Across the country, more than 100 stations with more than 50 years of observations have reported their lowest June rainfall total on record."
The remarkably persistent high pressure is a foretaste of things to come, with climate change pushing the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure farther poleward as the planet warms. Average pressure in winter in southern Australia has been gradually increasing over recent decades. The BoM says that mean sea level pressure (MSLP) "has been more than 5hPa above average for June across much of southern Australia; many sites with long-term MSLP data observed record high mean 9am MSLP for June, including all but one of the sites in South Australia, and all but three in Victoria." And the next few months are not looking that cheery for farmers, with the BoM's latest Climate Outlook indicating that this southward shift in high pressure and dry conditions will continue through into early spring.
The incredibly dry June has pushed rainfall deficiencies in some areas towards droughty levels looking at the past four months' figures. The western coast and nearby inland areas of WA are worst affected, with much of the Gascoyne coast area as well as smaller areas in the Central West and South West sitting on their lowest rainfall on record for the March to June period.
In SA, deficiencies have worsened on the Eyre, Yorke and Fleurieu peninsulas, Kangaroo Island, the Mid North and around Adelaide. In VIC, an area from West Gippsland to NE VIC is very dry, while in TAS serious deficiencies exist in the west and south over a four-month period, while the record dry June in the northeastern half means that it is now catching up.
On a three-month timescale, from April to June, a broad band of serious to severe deficiency has opened up from central NT to SE QLD, and others exist in the NSW Central West and eastern Riverina.
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