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| Thursday 28 September 2017 |
 BoM Climate Outlook for October to December: fair to middling
The Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for the next three months*, issued today, shows fairly even chances of wetter or drier than median (or normal) weather across the country, while there's a strong indication it'll be warmer than normal across northern Australia, the far southeast and in TAS. The brief archive edition is here.
However, within the rather nondescript probabilities for rain there are some clear variations. In eastern Australia, although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, continued cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean is causing it to trend towards La Niña conditions which typically bring wetter conditions in the east. The BoM's interpretation is that this will result in a 55 to 65% chance of a wetter than normal October to December in southern QLD and most of NSW. However, this is largely caused by a very high probability of well above normal rain in October.
Much of the rest of the country shows an even chance of receiving its normal rainfall over the three months. This is due to patterns in the Indian Ocean which are likely to draw moisture away from Australia. As the Bureau puts it, "These influences from the Indian and Pacific oceans are likely to be competing, with a slightly drying influence in the Indian Ocean likely to be cancelling out a slightly wetter influence from the Pacific Ocean." The exception to this normality is the northern Kimberley which has a 60 to 70% chance of wetter than normal weather.
Both maximum and minimum temperatures show a broad tongue of cooler air extending from the Great Australian Bight to the NSW coast for the October to December period as well as the individual months of October and November. Outside this tongue - across northern Australia, on the southeastern mainland and all TAS - the chances are high that temperatures will be above normal. In TAS, they're expected to be well above normal. Inside the tongue, there's an equal likelihood of above or below average temps (or, to put it less precisely than the Bureau does, the chances are they'll be about normal). The exception is October when temperatures in the tongue are likely to be significantly below normal. That would be a change those in this area would welcome after the heat of the past couple of weeks.
The Bureau produces an excellent summary video to go with the Climate Outlook. It includes a water outlook in addition to the climate outlook. In addition, the Rural Bank provide this more detailed set of videos, broken down state by state. Use the menu at the right to select your state.
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